Quarterly report Rabobank: this is what stands out
Marnix Hazelhoff
11 September 2025
Reading time 4 minutes
Rabobank published its quarterly housing market report this week. It shows that significantly more homes will be sold in 2025 compared to 2024, while prices continue to rise sharply. Additional supply from investors selling their rental properties gives buyers slightly more choice, but it does not solve the structural shortage.
More transactions in the housing market
In 2025, Rabobank expects around 238,000 sales, considerably more than last year. For 2026, a slight decline to 233,000 homes is projected, still well above the average of recent years.
A major reason is the so-called sell-off wave: many investors are selling their rental properties. This happens for two main reasons:
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Stricter rental market regulations
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Higher taxes and financing costs
As a result, more homes are entering the market for sale, temporarily increasing mobility.
House prices continue to rise
In July 2025, house prices were on average 8.6% higher than a year earlier. For 2026, Rabobank expects a further increase of 5.5%. Growth is slowing slightly but remains strong.
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Affordability is under pressure. More and more households are struggling to find a suitable home, but a price decline seems unlikely as long as demand continues to exceed supply.
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Major regional differences
Outside the Randstad, prices are rising the fastest (in some provinces by more than 10% annually). In Drenthe, Groningen and Limburg, scarcity is directly reflected in higher prices.
In the Randstad, especially in Amsterdam, growth is flattening. This is partly because more homes are coming onto the market and affordability has long been an obstacle. The Randstad also sees the highest number of sales due to the sell-off wave.
New construction lags behind
Many new construction projects have been announced, but actual completion is lagging. Fewer permits, rising costs and labor shortages are causing delays.
As a result:
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Additional supply comes mainly from existing homes
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Structural shortages remain
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Price pressure persists, even after the sell-off wave
Conclusion
The housing market is in full swing: more sales, rising prices and temporarily more supply due to the sell-off wave. Yet the underlying issue remains: structural shortages and lagging new construction keep the pressure on the market high. For buyers, this means more choice in the short term, but no real relief in the long term.
