What does a scarcity indicator of 2.6 mean for your bid?
Marnix Hazelhoff
17 april 2026
Reading time 4 minutes
Every quarter, the NVM publishes a number that most buyers scroll past: the scarcity indicator. In the first quarter of 2026, it stands at 2.6. That may sound like an abstract figure, but for anyone actively looking for a home, it is one of the most useful numbers out there. It tells you exactly how hard you need to compete, and therefore how to approach your bid.
What the scarcity indicator actually measures
To understand how exceptional a score of 2.6 really is, some perspective helps. In a normal, balanced housing market, the scarcity indicator hovers around 7 to 8. During the absolute peak of the Dutch housing market in 2022, the indicator dropped to historic lows. It recovered slightly after that, partly due to rising interest rates cooling demand. But now, in the first quarter of 2026, it has fallen back to 2.6, the lowest level in a long time.
At the same time, housing supply grew by more than 20 percent in Q1 2026 compared to a year earlier. That seems contradictory: more supply, yet such a low scarcity indicator. The explanation is that demand has grown at least as fast. More homes are coming onto the market, but more buyers are entering too. The additional supply does not structurally resolve the shortage.
What this means for overbidding
A scarcity indicator of 2.6 has a direct relationship with how much buyers end up paying above the asking price. The more buyers per home, the higher the average premium. That is not a coincidence but a mechanism: when multiple parties compete to win, the mutual pressure drives the final price above what the seller initially asked.
In the fourth quarter of 2025 72 percent of all homes were sold above the asking price, with an average premium of 5 percent. On a asking price of €400,000, that means an average final bid of €420,000. But that average conceals significant variation: popular homes in desirable neighbourhoods consistently attract higher premiums, while homes that have been on the market longer sometimes sell close to the asking price.
What does this mean for the future?
The situation is becoming increasingly challenging for home seekers. Overbidding remains necessary in nearly all of the Netherlands to stand a chance, while first-time buyers are more often forced to drop out or stay in the rental sector. Moving further out regionally offers little relief, as prices are rising sharply there too.
This pressure is expected to persist in the coming period. New construction lags behind due to high building costs and limited permit approvals. At the same time, demand remains strong, fueled by population growth and tax incentives that keep homeownership attractive. Unless the structural shortage of supply is resolved, prices are likely to continue rising in the second half of 2025.
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What this means in practice when placing a bid
A scarcity indicator of 2.6 means that for most homes you view, you are unlikely to be the only interested party. The average number of bids per home in Q1 2026 was close to three. That may sound manageable, but it also means two out of three bidders walk away empty-handed. The question is not whether to bid above the asking price, but how much above the asking price makes sense for the specific home you want.
That depends on more than just the national scarcity indicator. How long has the home been on the market? What have comparable homes in the same neighbourhood sold for recently? How does the condition of this home compare to those references? All of these factors together determine what a realistic yet competitive bid looks like.
Conclusion
A scarcity indicator of 2.6 tells you what kind of market you are operating in: one where competition is the norm and bidding above the asking price consistently pays off. But what you should specifically bid on the home you have in mind depends on data at the level of the property itself. That is where the national average ends, and where local knowledge takes over.
